The perfect game? Boston Red Sox and Daisuke Matsuzaka could be a winning combination
OK. We get it. Yes, the Red Sox spent an exorbitant amount of money to negotiate with star Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Yes, they will probably flitter away more to get him than Tampa Bay will spend on their entire team. And, yes, he probably will not win as many games as the Devil Rays (but, trust me…it’s close).
But I do not know what I find more unbelievable – Microsoft Word not trying to spell-check “Daisuke,” or the fact that no one recognizes this Boston maneuver for what it really is: genius.
Call me crazy, but this is the best move the Red Sox have ever made.
Let’s start with the basics. Matsuzaka is 26. For comparison purposes, take another 26 year old – Josh Beckett, arguably one of the best young pitchers in the league (and former World Series MVP) – and compare the statistics. Beckett has pitched roughly 813 innings in five years of consistency.
In three years (though he has pitched for eight, only in the past three has he grown into the consistent pitcher that he is today), Matsuzaka has thrown roughly 547. If you extrapolate Matsuzaka’s statistics to what they will be once he has thrown about 813 innings, he should have about 821 strikeouts (compared to Beckett’s 765) and will have given up about 649 hits (as opposed to Beckett’s 720).
Perhaps you need a better example? How about Johan Santana, two-time AL Cy Young winner and 2006 leader in 7 different categories? Santana has thrown about 1089 innings. Again, take Matsuzaka’s numbers and extrapolate them to the point where he will have pitched about 1089 innings. Matsuzaka will have had about 1110 strikeouts (compared to Santana’s 1146) and will have given up about 869 hits (as opposed to Santana’s 885).
Now I know what you’re thinking: “All of Daisuke’s statistics come from pitching in Japan.” Fair point. Most experts are telling you he has never proved himself against major-leaguers.
Wrong. In this past year’s inaugural World Baseball Classic, Matsuzaka posted a 3-0 record (against teams with several major-league starters) and was voted MVP of the event. Oh yeah, and his team won. Guess the Japanese players Matsuzaka usually pitches against in his home country aren’t too shabby.
But perhaps the numbers don’t speak as loudly as the practical reasons will. First, there is the obvious: this was a bid. Whoever posted the most money earned the right to negotiate with the pitcher (and his hardball agent Scott Boras). It is believed the New York Yankees put up a number somewhere between $32 and $33 million. Boston posted $51.1 million.
Big difference? Absolutely. It’s clear who wanted him more. And don’t tell me that an almost-$20-million difference won’t be a deciding factor when Matsuzaka’s potential contract runs up about four years down the line. Second, even if the Red Sox fail to sign Matsuzaka, the only repercussion is the money spent on dinner. Boston would receive a $51.1 million refund check.
No harm done – except to the Yankees and other possible contenders, who were effectively blocked out from signing the pitcher thanks to the Red Sox.
So you’re telling me I’m supposed to believe the down-side of this whole thing is Boston signing a pitcher that could one day join Santana as one of the all-time greats? Please.
Yes, it will cost a lot of money. In addition to the $51.1 million, the BoSox will probably have to cough up another $50 million to actually sign Matsuzaka.
But money has rarely ever been a problem for the Sox, who are constantly reaping in the dollars from fans, countless marketing strategies, and that one fleeting moment where they were successful (I dare you to find a member of Red Sox Nation who wouldn’t spend $100 million to see that again).
But this possible deal has implications that go far beyond the immediate success of Matsuzaka and the Red Sox. As Peter Gammons and Theo Epstein will tell you, the players coming out of the Asian market could significantly alter MLB in the next few decades.
With the Yankees and Mariners each having staked a claim in Japan (Hideki Matsui and Ichiro Suzuki, respectively), the move for Daisuke Matsuzaka could be a big step toward establishing a competitive foundation in Asia – one that the Sox could be tapping for talent for years to come.
And the more players that arrive in Boston, the bigger the fan-base gets. Marketing officials for the Sox speculate that all of Matsuzaka’s starts will be televised in Japan. With Matsui and Suzuki already in the American market, imagine the viewing audiences for Sox games against the Yankees and Mariners. More fans would mean more money.
And if Matsuzaka were to join the Sox, who wouldn’t want to be a fan? You would be looking at a starting rotation of Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, and Tim Wakefield.
I like my chances throwing any of those guys against the Yankees’ number one – an aging Randy Johnson who’s more likely to hurl a herniated disk than a 95+ mph fastball.
Even if this deal does happen, however, the Red Sox are not out of the water of woes that they drowned in last year. But if they’re this willing to go after a supposedly “unproven” Matsuzaka, expect them to be even more aggressive in the open American market.
You don’t need to speak Japanese to know what that translates into:
2007 World Series Champions.

I’m hesitant to agree with just one part of your article: that last sentence. But that’s really because I don’t want to get my hopes up quite yet.
Other than that, I’m excited and heartened to read what you’ve written here. Thanks!
Abby Miller
November 22, 2006 at 10:19 am
It’s cool, I knocked on wood.
:)
Dillon White
November 22, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Hoora, awesome article, you make a really solid point about the expansion of the fan base. Shit, that alone will pay off his salary. Go Sox!!!
Matt Mckenna
November 22, 2006 at 7:28 pm
True!
Not to mention this deal is starting to look less and less absurd with every new contract negotiated this offseason.
Don’t get me wrong – Alfonso Soriano is good. But $136 million for a guy who will probably end up playing center field?
Ouch.
Dillon White
November 23, 2006 at 1:50 am