Opinion
Sports / Nov. 6, 2008 at 9:33 pm

Breaking down Northwestern’s chances against Ohio State

By Michael Szajewski

On Saturday the ‘Cats will seek to upend Terrelle Pryor and the No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes for the first time since 2004. Photo by usawayne on Flickr, licensed under the Creative Commons.

Last week Northwestern shocked the world (or at least the Midwest) by beating the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Minneapolis. It was the first win against a ranked opponent in the Pat Fitzgerald era. Unfortunately, things don’t get any easier this week: The ‘Cats are in for their toughest matchup of the season when they return to home to face the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday at 11 a.m.

While the Buckeyes are still ranked No. 12 nationally, their season has been far from perfect. Many thought that, after losing to Louisiana State University in the national championship game last year, the Buckeyes would have an easy path to the title game this year. After all, the team returned most of their starters and added quarterback Terrelle Pryor, the most heralded recruit in the country. However, Ohio State fell off-track with a crushing 35-3 loss to the University of Southern California in the Coliseum, and more recently, a 13-6 homefield to now-Big-Ten favorite Penn State.

The Buckeyes are suffering from a lack of production on offense. While their staunch defense has played up to its ability, the offense has been abysmal by school standards. The Pryor-led Buckeye attack is ranked 97th nationally in yards. In comparison, Northwestern is ranked 51st.

Nonetheless, Ohio State’s talent cannot be overlooked with mere statistics, and the ‘Cats will have to fire on all cylinders to have a chance at upsetting this Big Ten foe. After a rousing victory under the lights at home in 2004, Northwestern has given three lackluster showings against the Buckeyes, losing 48-7, 54-10 and 58-7 in ’05, ’06 and ’07 respectively.

For the Wildcats, the quarterback situation has been a big question in the minds of fans this week. Mike Kafka gave a remarkable performance against Minnesota, rushing for the most yards ever by an NU quarterback in a single game, but Fitzgerald has stated that, if healthy, Bacher is still NU’s starter. With Bacher’s status uncertain (he is currently listed as probable), expect to see both quarterbacks taking snaps against the Buckeyes.

For the ‘Cats, maximizing offense will be key to hanging with OSU. Northwestern must have more production at the running back position. Omar Conteh was completely shut down in the Metrodome last weekend and the ‘Cats received bad news on Thursday when the team learned that a knee injury Conteh suffered in practice will keep him out of Saturday’s game. As a result, the starting running back will be untested sophomore Stephen Simmons. There will be a lot of pressure on the young man from Missouri because a repetition of NU’s failure on the ground against Ohio State will prove fatal. Kafka’s slipperiness won’t overcome the shortcoming in the running game for the second week in a row because Ohio State’s linebackers, led by James Laurinaitis, are much faster than Minnesota’s.

Defensive Coordinator Mike Hankwitz’s unit must apply continuous heat on OSU’s young quarterback. Pressuring Pryor will give Northwestern chances to force interceptions. Turnovers would give the ‘Cats momentum and confidence that an upset is possible. Mike Hankwitz went with a 4-2-5 defensive scheme last week against the mobile Adam Weber, inserting extra safety Brian Peters and omitting linebacker Quentin Davie from the starting lineup. This game plan worked, so look for Northwestern to keep that package as an option against the dangerously quick Pryor.

Prediction: Things will be better than last year, but don’t expect to storm the field on Saturday. Northwestern has performed well all year as the underdog but they will be facing a well-coached Jim Tressel team that almost never takes a lesser foe for granted. In addition, the Buckeyes know that a loss would probably eliminate them from the Rose Bowl picture, and in Columbus anything less than a BCS berth is a failure. The Buckeyes will have no trouble with motivation.

With both Conteh and senior Tyrell Sutton injured, the ‘Cats have no legitimate threat at running back and the Buckeyes can concentrate on the Northwestern receivers, if Bacher plays, or on containing Kafka’s running game if he is the one under center. My guess: The Buckeyes will win, 30-14.

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Comments

  1. “Things will be better than last year, but don’t expect to storm the field on Saturday….My guess: The Buckeyes will win, 30-14.”

    Newsflash: This ain’t the Chicago Tribune. You’re allowed to exaggerate and inspire some spirit on this site.

    Dan

    November 7, 2008 at 8:12 am

  2. Forgot to add: if you’re so certain of you’re 30-14 prediction, perhaps you should be wagering on OSU to beat the spread, which is 11. Funny how professional lines makers think NU has a better chance than a NU student on an NU blog. What a joke…

    Dan

    November 7, 2008 at 8:21 am

  3. You’re confusing figure heads like those on ESPN with people who are actually accepting bets. Believe me. Those with money on the line are much more accurate than those spouting off whatever floats into their heads, as you and the author seem to be doing.

    If you believe in a blow out, why aren’t you out making tons of bets on OSU? Would you like to make one with me? If it’s going to be such a blow out, I’ll gladly lay you some odds.

    Dan

    November 7, 2008 at 12:17 pm

  4. Oh Dan, you are a mere fool, let the game’s result speak volumes. I dislike you, go away, you’re annoying me. Please, I am too great for you to disturb my presence. SILENCE. Form is a priceless element of which society is a part, my largeness precludes your very existence. Eat that for breakfast. Smoke that homie dawg. Yeah, I’m cooler than you, DAN.

    Phallus

    November 8, 2008 at 9:32 pm

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