Fourteen point five. In Dec. 29’s Alamo Bowl, Northwestern is a 14.5-point underdog, the biggest underdog out of all 34 bowls. With a 9-3 season, Northwestern actually has a better record than their opponent, the Missouri Tigers, but popular perception is that this game will be a blow out in Missouri’s favor. Missouri plays in the stronger conference, the Big 12, features an offense full of national stars and was even a dark horse pick by some at the beginning of the year to win the National Championship.

As the ‘Cats prepare to take on the Tigers in a battle of feline-mascots, journalism schools and spread offenses, let’s break down the match-up. Because while NU may be the overall underdog, the ‘Cats will be able to compete with the Tigers in some areas of the game.

Quarterback

Both quarterbacks are the beneficiaries of spread offenses and had similar interception totals (although NU’s CJ Bacher missed two games). Missouri’s Chase Daniel, despite his small stature, was a Heisman favorite coming into the season, but he was outplayed by the other great quarterbacks in the QB-loaded Big 12. Bacher showed flashes of greatness this season but never returned to the form we saw in last year’s games against Minnesota and Michigan State. He showed more of an ability to run the ball this year, but Daniel is the second leading rusher on the Tiger squad. Both players have quality backups, with Mike Kafka being more likely to see some action under center than Missouri’s Chase Patton. Overall, though, Daniel has the clear edge in this match-up, as he averages 318 yards a game through the air and is less prone than Bacher to throw a pick.

Big Edge: Missouri

Running Back

Tyrell Sutton still has a cast on his left wrist, but is practicing in full pads and should play in the Alamo Bowl. Luckily the cast is on his wrist, not his legs, so he should be close to 100 percent running the ball. The concern will be his ability to hold onto the football as well as make receptions out of the backfield. If injuries continue to be a problem for Sutton, Stephen Simmons will see the bulk of the carries. For the most part, Simmons was ineffective in taking over for the injured Omar Conteh. Derrick Washington of Missouri was a great complement to Daniel this season, rushing for close to 1000 yards at around six yards per carry. This is a tough match-up because a healthy Sutton combined with backup Omar Conteh would get the edge over Washington. But, with Conteh out for the year and persistent concerns over Sutton’s health, Washington and Missouri are able to close the gap.

Edge: Push

Wide Receiver

Tigers receiver Jeremy Maclin is one of the most prolific players in the country. He is versatile, a weapon catching the ball, running the ball, and returning the ball. Maclin averages an absurd 203 all-purpose yards a game. He had 12 receiving touchdowns, one kickoff return touchdown, and two rushing touchdowns. Joining Maclin as a weapon for Daniel is Chase Coffman, the John Mackey Award winner for being the best tight end in the country. Coffman had 920 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. Both Maclin and Coffman were first team AP All-Americans. NU’s wide receiving corps has depth and experience with three seniors in Eric Peterman, Ross Lane and Rasheed Ward. Freshman Jeremy Ebert has also stepped up this season. While Peterman is the versatile athlete who can run, throw and catch, he is nowhere near Maclin’s athleticism, and the Cats don’t have a superback half as good as Coffman.

Big Edge: Missouri

Offensive Line

The ‘Cats’ young and inexperienced line performed well this season, considering the circumstances. Lots of players got shuffled around, but the biggest surprise was the superb play of redshirt freshman Ben Burkett. Senior Keegan Kennedy also had a great season after moving over from the defensive side of the ball. The Cats only gave up 17 sacks, but had trouble opening up holes after Sutton went down. Missouri’s o-line only allowed 15 sacks on the season. With two teams like this, it is hard to analyze the offensive lines, but the Tigers will get the nod. A high-powered offense that can score at will needs a solid offensive line to do so as successfully as Missouri.

Edge: Missouri
Overall Offensive Edge: Missouri

Defensive Line

This was a breakout season for NU’s defense, and it all started up front with the d-line. Corey Wootton had a monstrous season with nine sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Redshirt freshman Vince Browne, who had four sacks this season before getting injured against Minnesota, will be back for the game. Along with seniors Kevin Mims and John Gill, the ‘Cats led the Big Ten with 33 sacks. Missouri’s defensive line is led by Evander “Ziggy” Hood and Stryker Sulak. Sulak had eight and a half sacks and six forced fumbles while Hood continued the success that has made him a likely pick in the NFL draft. The ‘Cats’ defensive line was improved, but Hood and Sulak both garnered All-Big 12 honors so it is hard to say that any unit has an edge.

Edge: Push

Linebacker

The ‘Cats lost a great senior linebacker in Malcolm Arrington to injury earlier in the season, but Nate Williams stepped up in a big way. Prince Kwateng filled in admirably at linebacker. He also was second on the team with 93 tackles. Missouri’s best player on defense is in the linebacking corps: Sean Weatherspoon. The third team All-American led the Tigers with 138 tackles, 16 of them for a loss. He also had four and a half sacks and three interceptions and was a first team All-Big 12 linebacker. Senior Brock Christopher is also another source of strength in the Tigers’ linebacking corps.

Edge: Missouri

Secondary

A breakout year for the defense meant a much-improved secondary. Sherrick McManis and redshirt freshman Jordan Mabin will have a tough time with Missouri’s receivers, but have played well all year. Brad Phillips had his best season, leading the team with 101 tackles, including a hit that Iowa running back Shonn Greene still feels. And that’s not even including the captain, Brendan Smith, whose interception return for a touchdown against Minnesota turned the ‘Cats’ season around. The Tigers secondary is led by senior William Moore, a first team All-Big 12 strong safety. He had 83 tackles, five and a half for loss this season. Justin Garrett and Castine Bridges received honorable mentions for the all-Big 12 team in the secondary. But Missouri’s defense has given up 285 yards receiving a game this year, 70 more than NU.

Slight Edge: Northwestern
Overall Defensive Edge: Northwestern (slight edge)

Special Teams

Maclin, as stated earlier, is an outstanding return man who has the chance to break it for a touchdown at any moment. For the ‘Cats, they have steady return men with Smith for punts and Ebert and Simmons for kicks, but they are not nearly as dangerous as Maclin. Stefan Demos had a great year punting the ball with his rugby-style kicks, pinning many teams inside their 20. Jeff Wolfert was 17-23 for field goals on the season with a long of 51 for the Tigers while Amado Villarreal was 19-23 with a long of 46. But don’t be mistaken by this year’s numbers; Wolfert is very good. He is 238-250 in his career for PATs and field goals combined — which is closing in on an NCAA record — and he hasn’t missed a PAT all season.

Edge: Missouri

Coaching

Gary Pinkel has done a great job at Missouri, but this year was extremely disappointing. With two Heisman candidates in Daniel and Maclin, the Tigers were not able to upset anyone in the Big 12 and had an embarrassing upset loss to Kansas to end the year before being blown out by Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship. The defensive coaching staff has put up Greg-Colby-type numbers (NU’s former defensive coordinator). Pat Fitzgerald also came into 2008 with a good, experienced team, but lower expectations. The Cats shocked many in Evanston by first winning all their non-conference games for the first time in more than 40 years, then, despite injuries to Sutton, Bacher, and Arrington, won three of their last four games to win nine games for the first time since 1996. Mike Hankwitz should win some kind of assistant coach of the year award for what he has done for the ‘Cats defense. While Missouri may have the advantage in terms of skill on the field, the coaching staff for NU has done a significantly better job this season getting the most out of its players.

Edge: Northwestern

Intangibles

By being such a big underdog against a phenomenal offense, it is intangibles that the ‘Cats will need to upset Mizzou in the Alamo. The ‘Cats won three of their last four games, including the rivalry game over Illinois to regain the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk. They are a team loaded with experienced, focused seniors, many of whom played in the Sun Bowl. They exceeded expectations with a 9-3 season yet are still huge underdogs and looking for respect in San Antonio. Missouri is on the other end of the spectrum as they hobbled toward the finish line. A 40-37 upset loss to in-state rival Kansas and then a beat-down by Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship was a disappointing end to the season for a squad that was supposed to challenge for a BCS bowl. Daniel and Maclin will still be the two best players on the field on Monday night, but a spot in the Alamo Bowl is a letdown for Missouri. For the ‘Cats, on the other hand, it is a thrill to be back in a bowl game and to get to 10 wins and, most of all, to get that elusive first bowl victory since 1949, would mean a lot to the team, the university and the community. The ‘Cats have a lot more to play for than Missouri, and if they show that on the field, they could pull off the upset.

Edge: Northwestern

Prediction

The only way that NU keeps this game close is if they create turnovers and score almost every possession. This needs to be a shootout for the ‘Cats to have a chance, and they will have to keep up with Daniel, Maclin and the high-powered Tigers offense. To win, the ‘Cats must force turnovers and make some big special teams plays. With the intangibles on their side and a much-improved defense, an upset is not out of the question. But Missouri’s offense is better than those of Ohio State and Michigan State, and we all know what happened in those games.

Final score prediction: Missouri 45 Northwestern 35